NKE — Q4 FY2026 Earnings Dashboard

Q4 FY2026 Earnings — Reported June 30, 2026 · After Market Close · IEEPA Tariff Recovery Lifts EPS

Revenue −1% to $11.0B · Gross Margin +890bps to 49.2% · EPS $0.72 (incl. $0.52 Tariff Benefit)

Nike closed fiscal 2026 with a Q4 that beat consensus dramatically, though largely due to a one-time tariff recovery item. Revenue of $11.0B fell 1% YoY (−4% currency-neutral) as continued weakness in Greater China and EMEA offset growth in North America. Gross margin surged 890bps to 49.2% — including a ~900bps benefit from an expected $986M IEEPA tariff recovery. Diluted EPS of $0.72 vastly exceeded the ~$0.12-0.13 consensus, with $0.52 of that directly attributable to the tariff windfall. Net income rose 407% YoY to $1.1B. For full fiscal 2026, revenue was flat at $46.4B and diluted EPS fell 3% to $2.10. CEO Elliott Hill says Nike took "decisive actions" to reposition the business; full long-term guidance is deferred to a fall 2026 Investor Day.

Beats

Diluted EPSEst. ~$0.12-0.13$0.72 (massive beat)

RevenueEst. ~$10.85-10.9B$11.0B (above est.)

Gross MarginGuided down 25-75bps+890bps (tariff-driven)

Wholesale Revenue—+4% reported · NA strength

Net Income—+407% YoY to $1.1B

North America RevenueGuided modest growthGrowth confirmed

Concerns

EPS quality—$0.52 of $0.72 from one-time tariff item

Greater China RevenueGuided down ~20%Declined · sixth straight qtr drop

EMEA Revenue—Declined · Sportswear weakness

NIKE Direct Revenue—−7% reported · Digital −12%

Converse Revenue—−32% reported · all territories down

FY2027 long-term guidance—Deferred to fall Investor Day

Select Financial Results — Three Months Ended May 31, 2026

Total Revenue$11.0B$11.1B−1%

NIKE Brand Revenue$10.7BFlat rep.−3% CC

Wholesale Revenue$6.6B+4% rep.+1% CC

NIKE Direct Revenue$4.1B−7% rep.−9% CC

— NIKE Brand DigitalDeclining—−12%

— NIKE-owned StoresDeclining—−7%

Converse Revenue$244M−32% rep.−34% CC

Gross Margin49.2%40.3%+890bps

IEEPA Tariff Recovery Impact~+900bps$986M totalOne-time

Selling & Admin Expense$4.1B—−2% YoY

Demand Creation Expense$1.2BLower mktg.−4% YoY

Effective Tax Rate19.6%33.6%−1,400bps

Net Income$1.1B~$211M (est.)+407%

Diluted EPS$0.72$0.14+$0.52 tariff

Inventories (May 31)$7.5B—Flat YoY

Cash & ST Investments$9.0B—−$0.1B YoY

Full-Year FY2026 (Ended May 31, 2026)

Total Revenue$46.4B (flat reported · −2% CC)

NIKE Brand Revenue$45.2B (+1% reported)

Wholesale Revenue (FY)$27.5B (+6% reported)

NIKE Direct Revenue (FY)$17.7B (−6% reported)

Converse Revenue (FY)$1.2B (−31% reported)

FY Gross Margin42.9% (+20bps YoY)

FY Net Income / Diluted EPS$3.1B / $2.10 (−3% YoY)

Geographic Performance (Recent Quarters)

North AmericaGrowth · strongest region

Greater ChinaDeclining · 6th+ consecutive qtr drop

EMEADeclining · Sportswear weak, ME disruption

APLAMixed · regional variance

NIKE RunningStrong growth momentum

Shareholder returns (FY)$2.5B ($2.4B div. + $123M buybacks)

$18B buyback program1.8M shares retired in FY26

"In fiscal 2026, we took decisive actions to strengthen the foundation of NIKE, Inc. and reposition our business for long-term growth. We made meaningful structural improvements to lay the groundwork for our Sport Offense across our team culture, innovative product, brand strength, and how we serve consumers in our countries and cities. While we continue to face top-line headwinds, we're encouraged by progress in performance product and are focused on consistent execution, improved profitability and scaling our wins to realize our full potential."

Elliott Hill, President & CEO · Q4 FY2026 Earnings Release, June 30, 2026

Positives

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Nike confirmed an unexpected $986M IEEPA tariff recovery — a positive cash and earnings surprise not contemplated in prior guidance. While one-time, it confirms management's ability to recover costs previously absorbed as a headwind, and added approximately $0.3B in actual cash received during the quarter.

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Wholesale revenue grew 4% reported (+1% CC) to $6.6B — driven by continued strength in North America. This validates CEO Elliott Hill's "Win Now" strategy of rebuilding wholesale partnerships (including the rejoined Amazon relationship and Foot Locker/Dick's partnerships) after the prior DTC-first strategy damaged channel relationships.

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The effective tax rate fell to 19.6% from 33.6% a year ago — partly structural (lower prior-year one-time items) but also reflecting improved underlying profitability dynamics. Combined with the tariff recovery, this drove net income up 407% YoY, even though normalized profitability improvement was more modest.

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NIKE Running and performance product categories continue to show double-digit growth momentum — validating that when Nike delivers innovative, sport-focused product (rather than lifestyle/fashion-led), consumer demand responds. This is the clearest evidence that Hill's "Sport Offense" strategy is working at the product level.

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Inventories held flat at $7.5B year-over-year despite a revenue decline — indicating Nike has successfully avoided a destructive inventory buildup during the turnaround period. Clean inventory levels reduce the risk of future deep discounting and protect brand pricing power going forward.

Concerns

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$0.52 of the $0.72 diluted EPS came directly from the one-time IEEPA tariff recovery — meaning normalized Q4 EPS was approximately $0.20, still well above the original ~$0.12-0.13 consensus, but the headline beat significantly overstates underlying earnings power. Investors must carefully separate the tariff windfall from operational performance.

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Greater China revenue declined for a sixth consecutive quarter — confirming this remains Nike's most persistent structural problem. Management's marketplace cleanup strategy (reducing wholesale sell-in, clearing aged digital inventory) is a deliberate multi-quarter reset, but the duration and depth of the China weakness continues to exceed initial expectations.

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EMEA revenue also declined, compounded by Sportswear/lifestyle category weakness and Middle East-related traffic disruption that management cannot directly control. With two of four major geographic segments (China and EMEA) in decline, the "turnaround" remains uneven and incomplete — North America strength alone cannot offset both regions long-term.

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NIKE Direct revenue fell 7% reported (9% CC), with Digital down 12% and owned stores down 7% — the company's pivot back toward wholesale is explicitly de-emphasizing its higher-margin direct channel. While strategically rational given past DTC overreach, this trade-off compresses near-term blended gross margin once the tariff benefit rolls off.

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Full long-term financial guidance remains deferred to a fall 2026 Investor Day — meaning investors have no multi-year framework for FY2027 margin recovery timing, revenue growth targets, or capital allocation priorities for several more months. This guidance vacuum creates valuation uncertainty and keeps the stock vulnerable to sentiment-driven volatility.

Wall Street & Market Data — Post June 30, 2026

Metric / Source	View	Note
JPMorgan (pre-earnings)	PT cut to $47	From $52 · cautious into print on China + EMEA risk
RBC Capital Markets (June)	Downgraded to Sector Perform	PT cut to $50 from $70 · "progress, but slower and narrower"
Stock trading pre-earnings	~$41.82	−33.9% YTD · below 200-day MA of $57.94
35-analyst consensus PT	~$58.72-59.70	~40% implied upside from pre-earnings price
CEO Hill insider buy	47,320 shares @ ~$42.27	April 13 · joined by directors Tim Cook, John Rogers, Bob Swan
Key forward catalyst	Fall 2026 Investor Day	Full FY2027+ guidance · margin recovery timeline · long-term targets

Earnings Verdict

A Tariff-Flattered Beat — The Real Story Is North America vs. China/EMEA

Nike's Q4 FY2026 headline numbers — EPS of $0.72 against a ~$0.12-0.13 consensus, gross margin up 890bps to 49.2% — look spectacular, but the substance is more nuanced. Roughly $0.52 of that EPS and 900bps of that margin gain came from a one-time, previously-uncontemplated $986M IEEPA tariff recovery. Strip that out, and Nike delivered a solid but unspectacular quarter: revenue down 1% (4% currency-neutral), wholesale growing on continued North America strength, and Greater China extending its losing streak to six-plus consecutive quarters. The full fiscal year tells the real story — revenue essentially flat at $46.4B, diluted EPS down 3% to $2.10 — confirming that FY2026 was a stabilization year, not a growth year, for CEO Elliott Hill's "Win Now" turnaround. The wholesale rebuild and NIKE Running momentum are genuine, durable positives. But with Greater China and EMEA both still declining, and full long-term guidance deferred to a fall Investor Day, the market has no clear multi-year framework to value the stock on. At a pre-earnings price near $42 against a 35-analyst consensus target of ~$59, Wall Street is pricing in significant recovery — but that recovery has not yet shown up cleanly in the underlying (ex-tariff) numbers. The tariff windfall buys Nike balance sheet flexibility and a confidence boost, but the next genuine test of the turnaround is whether China stabilizes and EMEA returns to growth before the fall Investor Day. Next earnings: Q1 FY2027, expected late September 2026.

Revenue

$11.0B −1%

EPS

$0.72

Tariff Benefit

$0.52 / $986M

FY Revenue

$46.4B Flat

FY EPS

$2.10 −3%

Next Catalyst

Fall Investor Day